NCD Medicines & Products Forecasting Program

"We just developed our NCD Strategic Plan (2021-2026) and for the first time were able to estimate our requirements of medicines over the next five years. Before, we had no means to quantify or prove what we as a ministry required for hypertension and diabetes. Our forecast is evidence based, and we can support our argument. Now we will be able to use the strategy document to lobby with the counties, the national treasury, and the parliament to appropriate funds."

Dr. Ephantus Maree

Head of the Department of NCDs, MOH, Kenya

A Call to Innovation

Unique challenges contribute to the low availability of NCD medicines. Many countries have inadequate capacity and tools for supply chain and surveillance data capture, reporting and use. These problems are confounded by lengthy stockouts, inadequate consumption data, and unstable market dynamics. Building capacity to forecast these NCD products is a critical first step in improving the performance of NCD supply chains in low- and middle-income countries.

To address this need, the Coalition partnered with local and global experts in forecasting along with the ministries of health in Kenya and Uganda to develop a forecasting program. The goal is to develop accurate forecasts, improve data quality, and mobilize funding for these medicines & products.

The Vision

Develop a global public good adaptable to any country to forecast NCD medicines and products.
Provide ministry of health NCD teams with a methodology and supportive tools that
accommodate for limited and poor-quality data; this includes alternative data sources and
adapts for unstable market dynamics.
Estimate quantities and costs of hypertension and diabetes medicines and products to
meet the health needs of the population seeking care for a specific geographic scope and
a specific sector.
Provide the tools and technical guidance for ministries to develop and communicate the
five-year forecast to key country stakeholders and determine next steps for using forecast
results to inform financing and procurement processes.
Produce information for advocacy efforts aimed at reducing financing gaps and creating a
specific budget line item for NCD medicines/products to increase commodity security.

Impact

Development of an Excel-based forecasting tool, training workshop materials, and user guides.
Kenya: Tool was piloted in four counties in Kenya beginning in late 2020. Learnings were incorporated
into five-year costed county forecasts for hypertension and diabetes medicines. Results
are informing supply planning as well as the national NCD strategic plan.
Uganda: National forecasting efforts carried out in partnership with the Ministry of Health
during 2021. Following a meeting between the Department of NCDs of Uganda and the
Parliamentary Committee for Health, a motion was passed with no objection, urging the
government to provide free medicines to Ugandans living with diabetes, hypertension,
and by extension, all NCDs and increase NCD medicines budgets.
Plans to scale the program and digitize the tool underway!
Check out the published blog on the program.